Weekly Chart Analysis

Weekly and Daily Analysis

Inverted Head and Shoulders

Weekly Chart Analysis

Daily Chart Analysis

On the weekly chart we observe that the Euro moved up to the January 2012 low (orange line).

On the daily chart we see that EUR/USD respected (closed at) the 20 SMA yesterday and today price moved above the 20 SMA up to the January's low at 1.2624 (orange line) and the 61.80 % fib retracement at 1.2620. This resistance zone held the Euro and price fell back from this level into the price range of yesterday's daily candle. EUR/USD already failed to recapture the low from January 2012 on May 28th (recent high from May 28th coincides with January's low).

1 hour EUR/USD forex chart analysis

On the hourly chart (above) we see that the Euro started today's up move from the recent swing high at 1.2543 (blue line-C). After the back test of this level (resistance became support-C) EUR/USD moved above the weekly R1 but market found  resistance at the orange line (low from January 2012), 61.80 fib retracement, daily  R1 and the 61.80 % fib extension (A-B at C)

Overall, the Euro could not overcome this resistance zone at about 1.2624 and in the following price sharply fell back from resistance at 4 p.m. before price found solid support at at the 10 SMA on the 4 hour chart at 1.2546 (4 p.m. candle-not shown) closely to the recent swing high (blue line-support-D) at 1.2543.

5 min Inverted head and shoulder

On the 5 min chart we see that EUR/USD formed a typical 3 wave consolidation pattern at the price level of the weekly R1 (between 1-2 p.m.) before the Euro resumed it's uptrend terminating at the resistance zone. The Euro reversed sharply and took out the recent striking low at 1.2562.

Inverted Head and Shoulders chart pattern

The recent consolidation from the beginning of today's European session (8 a.m. - 10 a.m.-not shown) provided some support and led to a pause of the sudden price drop before market headed up again at 4:35 p.m. after price reached the 10 SMA on the 4 hour chart (not shown). The Euro formed a kind of inverted Head & Shoulder (3,4,5), which got triggered and market moved up to the consolidation pattern at today's high (6).

Ending Diagonal Triangle

Triangle Consolidation Break

Ending Diagonal Pattern

Daily 20 SMA

On the daily chart we see that the Euro moved up into the important price zone of the prior consolidation and the 20 SMA, which both should act as resistance. A bit higher at 1.2588 (not shown) also stands the weekly low from August 2010, which got respected (closed at) two weeks ago and broken last week.

1 hour triangle breakout, ending diagonal pattern

Typical 3 wave consolidation

On the 1 hour chart we see that EUR/USD formed a typical 3 wave consolidation (CDE) just before today's breakout. Yesterday, the Euro found support at the apex of the red triangle (C) and today price found resistance at the daily R1 (D) and support at the weekly pivot point (E) where the consolidation pattern terminated and EUR/USD started to move up to break the important consolidation high at 1.2543 (B).

The Euro moved initially up to  the 61.80 % fib extension C-D at E where market temporarily paused before price resumes it's up trend to the 100 % fib extension (F). The Euro is currently trading at daily resistance and the 61.80 % fib extension from A-B at C and the 100 % fib extension from C-D at E (F).

5 min EUR/USD chart analysis

On the 5 min chart we see that the recent 100 % fib extension from 1-2 at 3 also stands at the current resistance zone. We also see that  the Euro paused as it reached the 61.80 % fib extension (C-D at E) (2). Later on market formed a bull flag before price moved up to the confluence resistance zone, where price started to fall back after the creation of the bearish candle (Doji)