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Is Forex too big to be manipulated?

Forex Price Rigging



FX Manipulation despite high market volume?




Concentration of large market orders




The argument that forex is the market with very high volume seems to be enough to blind most of the forex traders to analyze their charts and the repeating price patterns e.g. at News Releases with a clear mind. Some big FX Market Players might be able to rig the market price. Bloomberg recently revealed some manipulative price rigging patterns in Forex.

Although the volume is high in Forex the concentration of large market orders by the FX manipulators might be enough to rig the market particularly in an unregulated forex market with many “smaller” "uncoordinated" market players on leverage/ margin using often very tide stops which are relatively easy to spot on the charts.

With a large chunk of market orders by the Forex manipulators the stop and limit orders of the mainstream traders might be used to work in the interest of the manipulators. The mainstream stop and limit order zones might be used by the manipulators to position against the mainstream FX traders with either building up a position (accumulation) or closing a position.


Is the Forex market really too big to rig?




The acceptance of the paradigm that the Forex market is too large to be manipulated should lead to some questions:



To go against the market price action at a breakout level with all the stop loss and breakout limit orders on one side of the market as often seen in Forex seems to only make sense if someone can control the Forex market to a certain degree. The often observable failed price breakout pattern after the slight price penetration (stop run) of an important chart level is repeatedly occurring, despite the accelerating stop loss and limit order execution, and it seems to be the driving force in the unregulated Forex market.



So,

  • How could it be that market is so often reversing at a breakout level with all the triggering stop and limit orders pointing in one - the opposite direction?
  • Who can effort to accomplish a position and reversing the market at these market levels when the market logic is against them?
  • Wouldn't it be “crazy” to go against the market when most of the stop and limit orders at these levels are triggered against you?
  • By the way, this “crazy” trading behavior is also visible on 1 min, 5 min charts and also at news release where the volume is even larger but still this “crazy” trading behavior to go against the price breakout of an important chart level (reverse market) and thus trading against all the opposing stop/ limit order triggering (plus often against the “logical” interpretation of the news release) is occurring over and over in the Forex Majors
  • As it is also frequently happening on very short time frames automated programs seem to be even programmed to execute this “crazy” trading behavior, also at news release despite the typical high market volume and the unknown future event. Who is so “crazy” to go against all market orders over and over even by automated trading in a market which is believed to be too large to be manipulated?

So, maybe there is something wrong with the assumption that the Forex market is too big to rig. Only the occurence of manipulative behavior can explain these trading patterns in my opinion..



95 % FX traders lose


So, I know that there are many opinions about Forex out there: Reaching from too big to be manipulated, regarding Forex as an efficient market, to Forex price manipulation and Forex scam. I only would like to ask you to be more skeptical about a business where approx. 95 % of fx traders lose and to focus more about the function of popular stop/ limit order levels in the forex market in general and in particular during news releases. Very often these levels get targeted and breached and after the stop run got accomplished market is reversing, thus hinting that someone targeted this chart level to accumulate or close a large position using the volume of the stop and limit orders at a striking level like market highs and lows.


Furthermore, media will always find an argument for every price movement with the focus on one detail thereby creating the illusion/ legitimization that there are good economic reasons to explain price action in the Forex market masking the real forces.


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