Fibonacci and Pivot Analysis

Consolidation and Continuation Chart pattern

Fibonacci Retracement and Extension

The two green ellipses are consolidation pattern, which acted as continuation chart patterns - Flag and pennants. The consolidation price zone of the first Consolidation/ Continuation Chart pattern (green circle) acted as support as market price tested this price zone of 1.2460 again. This support zone got strengthened through the 61.80 % Fibonacci Extension level of the recent swing and the 61.80 % Fibonacci retracement level.

The Euro moved up to the price zone of the black circled Consolidation pattern, which looks similar to a small Head and Shoulders pattern (H&S). As often, the first retrace into a price zone of a prior consolidation held the first test and the EUR/USD moved strongly down again to the daily support level (pink line). The Euro consolidated for a while after hitting the daily support before the second strong leg down moved price to the Daily Pivot Support. From there, the EUR/USD bounced strongly up above the recent daily high to clear some stops and fool some breakout trader.

The failed first breakout often occurs due clear the stops and fool some breakout traders at striking chart levels like market highs and lows. This manipulative triggering of market orders is also visible on the further price action on the chart, whereby the weekly R2 held the market drop in the beginning of the US trading session.

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5 min EURO USD Pivot Points and Fibonacci

Butterfly buy pattern

Fibonacci Price Targets

161 % Fibonacci Extension target and 61.80 % Fibonacci Retracement

Butterfly Buy Pattern on 5 min chart.

On the 4 hour chart of the EUR/USD we see that market price found support at the 61.80 % Fibonacci retracement and the daily S1 Pivot. From there, the Euro moved up to the 4-hour 10 Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the daily and weekly Pivot point resistance, where price started to slightly retrace back.

4-hour Fibonacci  Retracement

The 5 min Euro Chart below shows the development of a Butterfly buy chart pattern, which led to the sharp price reversal visible on the 4-hour chart.

The large black circle shows the butterfly pattern -three wave consolidation-after an impulsive move. The Euro passed the minor/ first butterfly buy target at 127 % Fibonacci Extension of the consolidation pattern and market price moved further to the final 161 % Fibonacci level of the Butterfly buy pattern. From there, the Euro reversed sharply to the upside and market reached the 161 % Fibonacci Extension of the whole swing from the high of the consolidation pattern/ Butterfly pattern to the market low.

In addition, the 161 % Fibonacci Extension level at the market bottom, which usually acts as the buying opportunity in the butterfly buy chart pattern, also coincided with the 100 % Fibonacci Extension level (of the recent swing down prior to the consolidation pattern moved to the high of the consolidation pattern).

Furthermore, the final 161 % Butterfly target coincides with the weekly Pivot point. The daily Pivot point might have acted as further resistance zone.

5 min Butterfly buy pattern