Wedge Pattern

Trading the Wedge

Euro Dollar Chart Analysis

Daily Head and Shoulder

Wedge Pattern on the Euro Chart

During recent trading days the Euro formed a kind of up trending wedge pattern on the daily/ 4-hour chart. The wedge pattern found resistance at the daily low of June 1st (pink line) and the trading price zone of the recent consolidation (green daily circle) and support at the 127 % butterfly target and the 61,80 % weekly fib extension.

The Euro broke below the rising pink daily trend line and market cleared the stops below the recent daily low (13 of July-blue line). The  wedge pattern formed three rising highs (happens often) before market turned around.

4-hour

The 4-hour chart (above) shows the typical timing setup (red circle). The Euro broke below the daily S1, yesterday's low (red line) and the rising daily trend line (pink line) after the prior 4-hour candle closed at support (respecting it) and the new 4-hour candle started (not immediately).

The hourly chart (below) shows that the price zone of the bull flag (green circle) provided some support yesterday (9-10 a.m.). Yesterday's two marked candles with the red ellipses show some bearish pressure. The first hourly candle marks the third high but market retraced most of the hourly trading range (rejection) and the second marked candle is a doji (also kind of evening star pattern). Today, the Euro formed a consolidation between the daily and weekly pivot but market created lower highs and a lower low before the Euro broke below it.

1 hour Euro Dollar Analysis

The 5 min chart (below) shows how price reacted at support/ resistance and some consolidations whereby the consolidation at about 10 a.m. GMT had the typical three-wave structure. The marked candle at 2 p.m. (red ellipse) between the two consolidation patterns shows that the break of the red support line occurred with the beginning of the new hourly candle (Timing). The daily S2 provided support at 2 p.m. and changed its role to resistance at 4:45 p.m..

5 min Euro Dollar Analysis

Triangle Chart Pattern

Triangle Consolidation

Ending Diagonal failed

The Euro moved lower, consolidated at yesterday's low with a three swing triangle consolidation pattern (9 - 11 a.m. GMT, red circle on 5 min chart below) and resumed it's down trend to the 127 % butterfly target/ daily S2 to find some support.

Yesterday's ending diagonal triangle failed. We might interpret the price action on the hourly/ 4-hour chart as a wedge/ ending diagonal (blue lines) but the pattern does not totally convince me. A fresh lower low would lead to a failure of the pattern.  However, the wedge pattern would fit to the butterfly reversal pattern.

The main question will be whether the 127 % butterfly target (1.2163) could provide some solid support or whether the Euro will continue to the 161 % butterfly target at 1.2005.

On the 4-hour chart (below) we see a bear flag (blue circle), which got triggered and the Euro moved to the 127% butterfly target. This support level further got strengthened due to the daily S2 and the 100 % fib extension. The green circles show how the 20 SMA provided resistance and the red circles show yesterday's timing setups.


On the 5 min chart (below) we see the three wave/ triangle consolidation (red circle), which is visible as a bear flag on the 1 hour chart. The green circle shows a small bear flag prior to the breach of yesterday's low (red line) with the beginning of the new hourly candle at 11 a.m. (Timing). The blue circle on the 5 min chart shows another bear flag which got triggered with the beginning of the new 4-hour candle at 12 a.m. (Timing setup).
The Euro found support in the price zone of the 127 % butterfly target/ daily S2. The fact that market could not breach the 61.80 % fib extensions from the previous swings and bounced from it (not consolidated at it- no bear flag) is often a sign for a larger consolidation or reversal (brown circle).

Next support zone would be the 61.80 % weekly fib extension/ weekly S1 at 1.2133.
Next resistance is Monday's gap opening at 1.2252 and the low of June 1st at 1.2288

4-hour Failed Ending Diagonal Pattern

5 min Triangle Pattern