Flag Patterns, Pivots and SMA

Chart Analysis of the Euro

Daily Pivot Point

1 hour Fib Extension

Price Zone of the Consolidation pattern

 Today in the Asian session EUR/USD went lower but market found support at the gap close from the trading day before at 1.2518 and the tight price zone of the consolidation pattern at this price level (Z).  The Euro moved up from this support price level (C) and penetrated the daily pivot point (1.2563) (D) but found resistance in the price zone of yesterday's consolidation pattern (B). Since then EUR/USD is trading lower.

5 min Euro us dollar chart analysis

Bull flag

 On the 5 min chart we see that yesterday's consolidation price zone at about 1.2540 (1) provided some resistance (2) before market went up further. The daily low from May 23 at 1.2545 (red line) still seems to have some impact (red circles). Market consolidated (3) (Bull flag) and closed (7 a.m. hourly candle) at the red line before market broke out of the bull flag initially at the beginning of the new hourly candle at 8 a.m.(breakout candle).

The breakout candle respected (closed at) the daily pivot point, consolidated there (4) and broke through it triggered by the increasing 10 SMA on the 5 min chart. However, the breakout of the following small bull flag (5) just above the pivot point only reached the 61.80 % fib extension (a-b at c) (rejection) and the Euro turned around. Market price respected and then moved below the 10 and 20 SMA on the 5 min chart.

The EUR/USD market traded in a tight 20 pip range between 11 a.m. and 1 p.m. capped by the 200 SMA before market created a typicalthree swing consolidation pattern (ABC), which also can be regarded as a bull flag from the previous swing down (hourly chart) (the first swing/ wave (A) in the consolidation terminated at the 61.80 % fib retracement; the second wave (B) at the 61.80 % Fib extension from the previous swing down at A).

After the three swing consolidation pattern terminated (C) market broke down strongly (high momentum) and market took out the previous lows, particularly the recent low from 25th of May at 1.2496 (blue line). Market only initially respected the support zone of the daily S1, low from 25th of May and the 100 % fib extension (4:35 p.m.) before the Euro moved down further to find some support at the daily S2 pivot, the hourly 100 % fib extension (A-C at D) and the 161 % fib extension on the 5 min chart.

10 and 20 SMA

During the strong move down (5 min SMA's were far away from price) the 10 and 20 SMA's on the 1 min chart (not shown) seem to become the trigger signals, e.g. at 4:41 p.m. (6), as long as the momentum stayed strong and market did not reject the decreasing SMA's on the lower time frame-1 min-.